Japan's Foreign Policy After the Cold War: Coping with Change by G.L. Curtis

Author:G.L. Curtis [Curtis, G.L.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Social Science, Ethnic Studies, General, Sociology, Regional Studies
ISBN: 9781315484914
Google: fsIYDQAAQBAJ
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2016-09-16T04:30:24+00:00

The Nuclear Quest

Official policy remains undaunted despite uncertainties of many kinds. The longterm strategy for nuclear development—the Nuclear Quest—has remained broadly unchanged during the past two decades or more: maximum autonomy in all aspects of nuclear power generation.17 Targets, details, and emphasis have changed in judging how fast the journey will take, reflecting such macrofactors as fluctuations in economic growth, energy demand elasticities, price of fossil fuels, government budgetary allocations, availability of new reactors sites, and rates of technological progress.

The most comprehensive statement of the Science and Technology Agency (STA) is the most recent "Long-Term Program for the Development and Utilization of Nuclear Energy" announced by the Atomic Energy Commission in June 1987.18 It is the seventh of its kind since 1956 and will be revised sometime in early 1992. In 1990 three Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) advisory bodies submitted energy demand forecasts and conservation plans that included views on nuclear development. Such "programs" and "outlooks" must be frequently revised as projections prove to be off the mark or ill-conceived. Nonetheless, based on consultation and information exchanges with the private sector, indicative planning helps define the current conditions of the Nuclear Quest while sending signals to the policy community on relative priorities and policy intentions. STA and MITI are sometimes in disagreement.

The official "long-term outlook for the supply and demand of energy" issued irregularly by MITI form the outside parameters for specific nuclear power planning by the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC).19 The most recent MITI outlook, announced in the summer of 1990, showed that the country's energy consumption is moving ahead of GNP growth rates at a time when the public environment is less friendly to nuclear power development.

MITI planners projected that the nation's power capacity should increase from 28.9 gigawatt (GW) in 1988 to 50.5 GW in fiscal 2000 and 72,500 GW in 2010. Consequently, the share of nuclear power in the total supply of energy would nearly double from 9 percent in 1988 to 16.7 percent in 2010. Nuclear power will thus account for roughly 43 percent of the nation's total electrical needs. This will require about forty additional plants to the existing thirty-nine. The role of oil is expected to decrease from 34 percent to 15 percent during the same period. The MITI advisory committee was careful to point out that projections could be easily upset by developments beyond the control of government, including a third oil crisis or resistance at home to nuclear power.

It is clear that despite growing doubts abroad, Japan continues to adhere to its ambitious development goals: more and improved LWRs, use of plutonium in LWRs, development of an intermediate ATR, and, in the twenty-first century, introduction of the fast breeder reactor (FBR) on a commercial scale. A prototype FBR (Monju), constructed at a cost of approximately Y60 billion, underwent preoperational testing in May 1991.

Japan is able to fabricate its own fuel needs but depends on overseas facilities for such critical processes as enrichment and reprocessing. To complete the entire

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